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8.2 A Forecaster Toolkit - A Tool for Every Forecasting Setting
8.2.1 Statistical and Other Quantitative Methods
8.2.2 Observation
8.2.3 Surveys


Content

  1. ^ where neither statistical methods nor observations are possible is to forecast the sales or market potential for a new product or product class by analogy.


  2. ^ Danone
  3. ^ HDTV


[1] An approach often used for new product forecasting where neither statistical methods nor observations are possible is to forecast the sales or market potential for a new product or product class by analogy.

Under this method, the product is compared with similar products for which historical data are available.

[2] Example : Danone

When Danone, the leading marketer of yogurt in Europe, plans to introduce a new flavour, its managers will likely look at the sales history of earlier introductions to forecast the sales for the newest flavour.

This method is also used for new-to-the-world high-technology products, for which product prototypes are often either not available or extremely expensive to produce.

Rather than conduct surveys to ask consumers about their likelihood to buy a product they can hardly imagine (What would someone have
said in 1978 about his or her likelihood to buy a personal computer?), forecasters consider related product introductions with which the new product may be compared.----

[3] Example : HDTV

Early forecasts for high-definition television (HDTV) were done this way, comparing HDTV with historical penetration patterns for colour TV, videocassette recorders (VCRs), camcorders, and other consumer electronic products.

As always, there are limitations. First, the new product is never exactly like that to which the analogy is drawn. Early VCRs penetrated households at a much faster rate than did colour TV.

Which analogy should be used for HDTV? Why?

Second, market and competitive conditions may differ considerably from when the analogous product was launched. Such conditions need to be taken into account.












Tags
  1. client contact systems
  2. collector bias
  3. competitive advantage
  4. competitive intelligence
  5. computerised reorder system
  6. consumer behaviour
  7. data sources
  8. evidence based forecast
  9. experienced user
  10. internal records
  11. just in time
  12. logistical alliance
  13. market potential
  14. market segmentation
  15. market segments
  16. marketing program
  17. marketing research
  18. mass market
  19. mass market strategy
  20. michelin; us west;
  21. micro segmentation
  22. middleman
  23. modified rebuy
  24. multi-functional sales teams
  25. multilevel selling
  26. multiple buying
  27. multiple level relationships
  28. mutual trust
  29. narrow market segment
  30. narrow niche
  31. nationalisation of producers
  32. nerve center
  33. new task buy
  34. nine west group
  35. observation;direct observation' tanzania mobile;
  36. on-time delivery
  37. opportunity; research
  38. order handling
  39. organisation market
  40. organization marketing behaviour
  41. organizational behaviour
  42. organizational customers
  43. organizational demand
  44. organizational market
  45. organizational purchasing behaviour
  46. organizational purchasing process
  47. paperless exchange
  48. parity pricing
  49. personal selling
  50. personal use
  51. political risk
  52. potential market; penetrated market
  53. pre-delivery inspection
  54. pre-sale service
  55. prestige buyer
  56. pretender
  57. primary data
  58. procurement costs
  59. purchasing criteria
  60. qualitative data
  61. qualitative research
  62. quality assurance
  63. quality standards
  64. quantitative data
  65. quantitative research
  66. research objectives
  67. retention programme
  68. routine purchase
  69. sales forecast
  70. semantic differentiation scale
  71. sequence of information
  72. shared costs
  73. short term contracts
  74. social construction
  75. status oriented consumers
  76. stock availability
  77. straight rebuy
  78. supplier bargaining power
  79. supplier performance
  80. supplier reputation
  81. survey
  82. tabulation errors
  83. tanzania mobile
  84. target customers
  85. target market
  86. target marketing
  87. technical experts;
  88. test markets
  89. transaction cost
  90. trend forecasting
  91. trusting patron
  92. underlying consumer demand
  93. unethical demands
  94. unstated but implicit assumptions
  95. users
  96. value analysis
  97. value shopper
  98. vertical integration
  99. visceral thing that cannot be trained
  100. wild guess