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8.2 A Forecaster Toolkit - A Tool for Every Forecasting Setting

8.2.1 Statistical and Other Quantitative Methods

8.2.2 Observation


Content
  1. ^ These surveys can be done with 4 different groups of respondents.
  2. ^ Example : Tanzania Mobile Phone Company
  3. ^ what people say is not always what people do
  4. ^ the persons who are surveyed may not be knowledgeable, but if asked for their opinion, they will probably provide it
  5. ^ what people imagine about a product concept in a survey may not be what is actually delivered once the product is launched.
  6. ^ old world pasta sauce with homemade flavour
  7. ^ Statistical or observation based method difference vs surveys based method
  8. ^ A survey of buyers's intentions



Another common way to forecast sales or estimate market potential is to conduct surveys.

[1] These surveys can be done with 4 different groups of respondents.

A.Consumers, after
  • being shown a statement of the product concept or a prototype or sample of the product, can be asked

  • how likely they are to buy, creating a survey of buyers’ intentions.

B.Buyers can also be asked about their current buying behaviour:

  • what they currently buy,
  • how often, or
  • how much they use.

C.The salespeople can be asked
  • how much they are likely to sell,
  • completing a survey of salesforce opinion.


D.Experts of various kinds – members of the distribution channel, suppliers, consultants, trade association executives, and so on – can also be surveyed.

[2] Example : Tanzania Mobile Phone Company
As part of their research in Dar es Salaam, Maddy and Laguë surveyed pay phone customers to find out more about them. A whopping 65 per cent were using a pay phone because they lacked access to another working phone – good news for the ACG concept!
Sixty-three per cent were business customers, 20 per cent were students or teachers, and 17 per cent were other nonbusiness customers.
Business customers spent an average of US$10 per week for 14 pay phone calls, and nonbusiness customers spent US$6 perweek for 12 calls.
By combining these data with demographic data on the Tanzanian population, Maddy and Laguë now had what they needed to prepare an evidence-based, bottom-up forecast of market potential, market segment by market segment.
----

Surveys possess important limitations, however.
1. For one, [3] what people say is not always what people do.

Consumer surveys of buyer intention are always heavily discounted to allow for this fact.
For one common approach to doing so, see Exhibit 8.2.

2. Second, [4] the persons who are surveyed may not be knowledgeable, but if asked for their opinion, they will probably provide it!

3. Third, [5] what people imagine about a product concept in a survey may not be what is actually delivered once the product is launched.
----
Example : [6] old world pasta sauce with homemade flavour
If consumers are asked if they will buy an ‘old world pasta sauce with homemade flavour,’ they will surely provide a response. Whether they will actually like the taste and texture of the sauce that the lab develops is another
story!


[7] In general, statistical and observational methods, where adequate data or
settings are available in which to apply them, are superior to survey methods of forecasting, because such methods are based, at least in part, on what people have actually done or bought (e.g., the number of old cars actually on the road, or thelength of pay phone calls in Tanzania), while survey methods (Are you likely tobuy replacement tires this year? How often are you likely to use a pay phone?) are based on what people say, a less reliable indicator of their future behaviour.



[8] A survey of buyers's intentions

2.jpg
Buyer Intentions






Tags
  1. client contact systems
  2. collector bias
  3. competitive advantage
  4. competitive intelligence
  5. computerised reorder system
  6. consumer behaviour
  7. data sources
  8. evidence based forecast
  9. experienced user
  10. internal records
  11. just in time
  12. logistical alliance
  13. market potential
  14. market segmentation
  15. market segments
  16. marketing program
  17. marketing research
  18. mass market
  19. mass market strategy
  20. michelin; us west;
  21. micro segmentation
  22. middleman
  23. modified rebuy
  24. multi-functional sales teams
  25. multilevel selling
  26. multiple buying
  27. multiple level relationships
  28. mutual trust
  29. narrow market segment
  30. narrow niche
  31. nationalisation of producers
  32. nerve center
  33. new task buy
  34. nine west group
  35. observation;direct observation' tanzania mobile;
  36. on-time delivery
  37. opportunity; research
  38. order handling
  39. organisation market
  40. organization marketing behaviour
  41. organizational behaviour
  42. organizational customers
  43. organizational demand
  44. organizational market
  45. organizational purchasing behaviour
  46. organizational purchasing process
  47. paperless exchange
  48. parity pricing
  49. personal selling
  50. personal use
  51. political risk
  52. potential market; penetrated market
  53. pre-delivery inspection
  54. pre-sale service
  55. prestige buyer
  56. pretender
  57. primary data
  58. procurement costs
  59. purchasing criteria
  60. qualitative data
  61. qualitative research
  62. quality assurance
  63. quality standards
  64. quantitative data
  65. quantitative research
  66. research objectives
  67. retention programme
  68. routine purchase
  69. sales forecast
  70. semantic differentiation scale
  71. sequence of information
  72. shared costs
  73. short term contracts
  74. social construction
  75. status oriented consumers
  76. stock availability
  77. straight rebuy
  78. supplier bargaining power
  79. supplier performance
  80. supplier reputation
  81. survey
  82. tabulation errors
  83. tanzania mobile
  84. target customers
  85. target market
  86. target marketing
  87. technical experts;
  88. test markets
  89. transaction cost
  90. trend forecasting
  91. trusting patron
  92. underlying consumer demand
  93. unethical demands
  94. unstated but implicit assumptions
  95. users
  96. value analysis
  97. value shopper
  98. vertical integration
  99. visceral thing that cannot be trained
  100. wild guess